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This series of articles is a primer on the release of our new "You're The Twins GM!" tool where you play the role of Derek Falvey and build your own Twins offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun!
Let’s first set the scene. The Twins have approximately $130 million to spend this season, so the limit for my exercise is $130 million (also, I broke my self-imposed limit, like a bad boy).
By my estimate, we’re starting at a payroll of $134.5 million, a number ownership probably wants us to get down from. But we also want to improve the team. The Twins have the following guaranteed contracts:
- $36 million to Carlos Correa
- $21 million to Pablo Lopez
- $15 million to Byron Buxton
- $10 million to Christian Vazquez
- $7.5 million to Chris Paddack
- $3 million to Randy Dobnak
- $1.5 million to Jorge Alcala (option already exercised)
The Twins also have 11 players eligible for arbitration. I’ll be using MLB Trade Rumors’s estimates for their salaries. I will tender contracts to all arbitration-eligible players other than Michael Tonkin (estimated $1.5 million). If some other team throws me a fringy 18-year-old for his rights, I will take it, but otherwise, he’s a non-tender. Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart all remain Twins for an estimated $31.8 million.
The minimum salary in MLB for 2025 is $760,000. However, some minimum salary players get small raises and other miscellaneous bonuses, so for this exercise, every other player on the roster will get an estimated $800,000 salary.
Move 1: Trade Chris Paddack
Given the payroll constraints, finding trading partners will be key this offseason. You may believe otherwise, but I’m a firm believer that the Twins can move Paddack’s entire salary. I don’t believe it would net them a great prospect, but $7.5 million is a reasonable price for a player of his caliber and pedigree on the free market. Who could he get the Twins in return? Honestly, I don’t care; nor do I care where he goes. I’ve been operating under the assumption all offseason that the Sheriff is riding out of town, one way or another. Let’s just say he gets traded to the Red Sox, and the Twins get someone like catcher Nathan Hickey. Sure. Him.
$7.50 million removed from the 2024 payroll. Lost: Chris Paddack
Move 2: Trade Christian Vázquez and Get Messy with It
I told you there’d be funk. Here it is. Vázquez handles a pitching staff well enough to be a starting catcher. However, he’s not worth $10 million to the Twins, and he’s likely not worth that to other teams, either. A key for the Twins will likely be finding the team willing to take on the most salary and sending him there.
In recent years, Falvey has pulled off some trades that ranged from unorthodox to boneheaded, and even if they didn’t work, they were kinda fun. San Diego is a great trade partner here for several reasons. First, they need a catcher. The team soured on their former catcher of the future—Luis Campusano, who has four years of arbitration remaining—down the stretch in 2024, starting a tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz down the stretch. Both the veterans are now free agents, and the team needs a starting catcher to hold the spot warm until top prospect Ethan Salas is ready to roll.
Also, A.J. Preller trades like a madman. Like, no trade he could ever make would surprise me.
So here’s what I’m thinking. Send Vázquez to San Diego for the disgraced youngster Campusano and lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 33, had a bit of a messy year in 2024, losing a step from his stellar 2020 to 2023, but he kept his ERA under 4.00. Peralta, like Vázquez, has an annoying contract that might not justify his play, being owed $13.15 million over the next three years with opt-outs after each season. In 2025, he’s owed $4.25 million.
If Peralta gets back on track, he may opt out after the 2025 season, but if he struggles or is truly cooked, the Twins could be on the hook for $4.45 million of dead money for 2025 and 2026. It’s two bad contracts for questionable players. Add in a catcher with more team control, which, the Twins are in desperate need of a catcher they can turn to after Ryan Jeffers reaches free agency after 2026.
In my hypothesized world, the Twins would include some very young, high-variance prospects like Adrian Bohorquez (MLB Pipeline’s #29 Twins prospect) and Eduardo Beltre (23)—an archetype Preller loves to collect so that he himself can flip them when they start looking exciting. That’s the starting point, anyway. I could be talked into someone higher up the chain, including other high-variance players like Brandon Winokur (16) or Yasser Mercedes (14), a top-ten prospect like Gabriel Gonzalez (7) or one of the club's high-minors pitchers if I was convinced Campusano could be fixed—I just don't know what the league thinks of him right now. That's one of the reasons that efforts like these are fruitless to predict from the outside. Shoot, San Diego might be looking for international bonus pool money to make a run at Roki Sasaki, and the Twins are probably looking for reasons to not spend money in international free agency; add that if it helps!
If I don’t feel Campusano can be fixed, I’d scale back the this deal, but I might be interested in someone like Boston’s Connor Wong, who is also a decent catcher with team control and a top prospect (Kyle Teel) who could soon be taking his job. I'm willing to be a bit reckless in prospect capital if I can find a young, controllable catcher, even if he's just a run-of-the-mill piece, given the Twins' lack of depth at the spot. However, if I can't find someone, I'd just throw some money at a low-end backup veteran catcher to prevent Jeffers and Jair Camargo (whom I have not been sold on yet) being the only catching options.
If Peralta doesn't opt out, in this hypothetical scenario, San Diego would pay $1 million per year of Peralta’s contract and $0.5 of Campusano’s estimated $1.7 million in 2025.
I would be stunned if this exact trade happened, but I have the feeling that if Vázquez is moved, it won’t be in a total salary dump. Hopefully the club can find a way to get really creative.
$5.55 million removed from the payroll. Lost: Christian Vázquez. Added: Wandy Peralta, Luis Campusano
Move 3: Trade for Yandy Díaz
First Wandy, now Yandy.
Let’s reallocate some of that salary that we just moved. The Rays have made it clear that they are open to trading Díaz, who will make $10 million this season and has a $12 million option for 2026, with no buyout money. If whatever team he’s playing for doesn’t want to bring him back, they can let him walk for free. However, if traded, his new team owes him an additional $1 million.
What would it take? That’s a good question. There are other first basemen available in free agency this offseason, so it’s not like Díaz is the only option among first basemen. My initial package would include high-minors pitching prospects Andrew Morris (6) and C.J. Culpepper (12), and then either catcher Ricardo Olivar (15) or outfielder Kala’i Rosario (19).
It’s time for the Twins to cash in their great pitching draft classes, as St. Paul probably has more pitchers than is reasonable right now. Ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins didn't protect Olivar or Rosario, so I would be interested in trading them if the team has any inkling that another club might try to snatch them away.
Does this do it? Maybe not, but it’s a place to start. I could be talked into building a package for Díaz for anything less than Luke Keaschall (3), especially if that led to Tampa kicking in a little salary. Ideally, the Twins could get the Rays to kick in $3 million (less than they paid to get Manuel Margot out of town, by the way).
$8 million added to the payroll ($7 million in salary, $1 million in trade assignment). Added: Yandy Díaz
Moves 4 & 5 (and 6): Fill Out the Bench
These two moves aren’t exciting at all, but I'd add a couple of (potentially) competent role players. First, Amed Rosario. Rosario is a utility player who’s frankly had an up-and-down career. Still, he’s a 29-year-old with positional flexibility, speed, and a good bat against lefties his entire career. I’d love to see him get a $2 million contract for 2025 with a $5 million option for 2026 if the Twins find something in him. A $500,000 buyout sounds good (it goes on this year’s ledger).
Second, I’d sign a bat-first righty outfielder. Now, this could be any number of dudes like Robbie Grossman, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, or whatever (if my scouts, of which I employ many, think they're not stew meat at this point in their careers, of course). There’s several of them, and one of them is going to be looking for a home in February. Throw $2 million at him and let him platoon with big, beefy boys Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Let's say it's Pham.
Honestly, I would be open to this bench spot being a lefty or an infielder, too. But they need to be able to hit. I guess that's the main thing here. Donovan Solano? I don't know, man, just find me someone who can play a corner spot or DH and is looking for a job in February.
However, this fifth move isn't a necessity. Don't spend money you don't need to; just backfill that spot with an internal option. Also, knowing when to cut the cord is critical to both fringe additions.
My last move would hopefully be free, but I’d try to find a way to bring in 25-year-old Cristian Pache on a minor league deal. Pache is a former top prospect who plays elite defense in center field but has struggled badly at the plate in his big-league career. He’s out of options, but he could still have a higher ceiling than someone like DaShawn Keirsey, and he’s right-handed. A Byron Buxton organization can’t have enough center field depth.
$4.5 million added to the payroll. Added: Amed Rosario, Tommy Pham, Cristian Pache (MiLB)
Please see my attached sheet for my estimate of how these moves would shake out payroll-wise. It would take some finagling, some negotiations going right, and some serious prospects, but I kind of like this roster. My final count is $130.85 million.
What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Twins roster and hit the button below!
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